In a quiet race, gay marriage steals the focus from other issues; first debate with all 3 candidates is Tuesday night

By Matt Young
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

In 2004 Kentucky voters passed by a 3-1 margin a state constitutional amendment defining marriage to be between one man and one woman. You’d be forgiven for assuming the initiative was on the ballot again this year.

The governor's race between Republican businessman Matt Bevin and Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway has been conspicuously quiet. “People like to know their governor, and I don't think either of these guys have done that with the people of Kentucky yet,” House Speaker Greg Stumbo told cn|2’s Pure Politics.

The lack of focus on the Nov. 3 election has left Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis to fill the attention the news media and voters.

Bevin called a federal judge’s jailing of Davis for defying his order to issue marriage licenses “utterly ridiculous,” saying that there is no need to jail someone for First Amendment beliefs, and called on Conway and Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear to take action to remove clerks’ names from marriage licenses. They said the law doesn’t allow them to do that.

Conway has exercised caution, waiting until after Davis was jailed to make his first comment. He said on Twitter, "I understand that passions are high on both sides of this issue, but we are nation of laws and no one can defy an order from a federal judge."

Asked by the county attorney to appoint a special prosecutor to look into an official-misconduct cases against Davis, Conway first did not respond. After Davis was released on condition that she not interfere with her deputy clerks’ issuance of marriage licenses, Conway said he would not name a special prosecutor because the matter was in federal court.

Conway has been largely mute lately, as he concentrates on raising money and wondering how much personal wealth Bevin will put into the race. His public appearances and media outreach have been almost non-existent since the Aug. 1 Fancy Farm Picnic.

Traditionally the governor’s race heats up after the Labor Day weekend, with a more intense schedule of debates and forums. Conway and Bevin will have their first face-off with independent candidate Drew Curtis at Bellarmine University in Louisville at 7 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 15. The debate will be televised on Louisville’s WHAS-11 and Lexington’s WKYT-27; it is sponsored by the stations and their newspaper partners in the Bluegrass Poll, The Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader.

The latest Bluegrass Poll, taken in late July, showed Conway leading Bevin 43 to 38 percent, with an error margin of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points (which applies to both numbers). Curtis had 8 percent.

Each side has turned up the rhetorical volume, with new TV ads.

Americans for Prosperity, a ”super PAC” supported by the Koch Brothers of Wichita, is attacking Conway for his support of federal health reform, or “Obamacare,” which it blamed for "a crisis in our hospitals” and “skyrocketing” insurance premiums.

The Kentucky Hospital Association says Obamacare has been a small part of its problems, but worries about future impacts. A national analysis by the National Conference of State Legislatures found that the average premium increase from 2014 to 2015 was effectively zero, while premium increases in the last decade have averaged about 10 percent. Kentucky rate increases for 2016 range from a 25 percent increase by the Kentucky Health Cooperative, which has sold most of the policies on the state’s Kynect insurance exchange, to an 11 percent decrease from WellCare. Other increases are between 5.2 and 12.2 percent.

The Republican Governors Association has been attacking Conway along the same lines, while Bevin hasn’t run ads of his own. Conway’s first attack ad builds on the “East Coast con-man” moniker that U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell applied to Bevin last year in their primary battle.

The ad shows Bevin making statements on the campaign trail, then apparently walking them back. It starts out showing Bevin saying, “I was opposed to the Farm Bill because it was an insult to farmers.” The screen then splits and shows him saying that that was “a misrepresentation of what he said.” He has a case; he objected to the bill’s spending for non-farm programs (most of its funds are for nutrition) and the money it funneled to big agribusiness.

The ad gets right that Bevin has backtracked on his opposition to the Medicaid expansion in Kentucky. He initially said that he would end it, but now says he would scale it back.

Beneath the fray is Curtis, CEO of Fark.com. Without the big money that comes with a party nomination, Curtis has been unable to air TV ads, but being an independent underdog comes with its advantages; he can ignore partisanship, and be free to talk about the issues. Curtis has released the most detailed plan to address the state’s underfunded pension system.

As the race heats up expect all three candidates to address other important issues. There will be sparring over the tax code, and how to create additional revenue the state needs; education, including the Common Core standards; and “right to work” legislation, which forbids employers from requiring union membership as a condition of employment.

However, if this summer can be used as a crystal ball for the fall, expect Bevin to continue his defense of Davis, and Conway’s refusal to appeal the gay-marriage ruling that was upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court. State law allowed Conway to do that, but Bevin accuses him of hypocrisy.

Candidates use religious values: Bevin on Rowan clerk, Conway on Bevin's attitude toward Medicaid expansion

By Cheyene Miller
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

The big job at stake this year is Kentucky governor, but the headlines and sound bites suggest that the Nov. 3 election is about religious values.

In a race that doesn’t seem to be gathering much public interest, Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway and Republican businessman Matt Bevin are using religion to appeal to Kentucky voters, who remain a highly religious voting base.

Bevin is using Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis’s jailing for refusing to issue marriage licenses to his advantage, saying Davis’s religious liberties and First Amendment rights are being violated.

Bevin criticizes Conway, who refused to appeal last year’s federal ruling that Kentucky’ same-sex marriage ban was unconstitutional, for not doing his job.

Conway said last year that he would not appeal because the lower-court judge got it right, an appeal would be on the wrong side of history, and good-paying jobs are going to states that allow marriage equality.

The independent candidate, Fark.com CEO Drew Curtis, says clerks have the right to their own personal beliefs but must follow the law as public officials.

The Davis situation did not mark the first time Bevin spoke about Christian values, as he made it one of his primary talking points during Fancy Farm Picnic weekend July 31-Aug. 1. “We need to stop apologizing for the Christian principles, the great American values that make this country great,” he said at a Republican dinner.

Conway has found his religious angle with the Medicaid expansion and Kynect, the Kentucky health insurance market, established under federal health reform. The two functions have given coverage to about 521,000 people and helped Kentucky reduce its uninsured rate more than almost any state in the nation.

In his speech at Fancy Farm, Conway criticized Bevin for not applying his Christian values to his views on health care. He said voters should elect someone who “understands that the truly Christian thing to do is to say that we are our brother’s keeper and healthcare for our people makes us a healthier and better society.”

Bevin has said that he would dismantle Kynect, but has backtracked on plans to abolish the Medicaid expansion, saying he would adopt a less expensive program, perhaps like Indiana’s, in which clients can pay premiums to get better benefits and get refunds if they don’t use the benefits.

In addition to health care, Conway and Bevin have also sparred on Kentucky’s pension system, which is considered one of the worst in the country. 

Bevin cites his experience at managing pension-fund assets, but was unfamiliar with a key facet of the state’s pension system when questioned about it this summer. He advocates moving away from Kentucky’s current pension system in favor of a 401k-style system and offering incentives to current employees who switch.

Conway says he is committed to making the pension payments required by a recent law, and wants to find a designated source of revenue for that.

Curtis proposes issuing a $5 billion bond, structured as a line of credit, that can be tapped in years when pension funds aren’t keeping up with their obligations, and pay back the debt in years when it runs ahead.

Conway is focusing his campaign strategy on education and Bevin’s statement in the Republican primary debate that early childhood education’s effects disappear after the third grade.

Conway released his education plan on Tuesday, proposing early education for 3-year-olds with parents making up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level (the same level as those who qualify for the Medicaid expansion) to during his first year in office, and all 3- and 4-year-olds whose parents make up to 200 percent of the federal poverty level by the end of his first term.

Bevin is more conservative on education and favors charter schools.

On television, the candidates and their supporters have questioned each other’s integrity.  Conway has used recycled verbal jabs from the 2014 Senate Republican primary, in which Sen. Mitch McConnell’s campaign called Bevin an “East Coast con man” and a “pathological liar.” He also criticizes Bevin for not releasing his tax returns, which Bevin says he will do if elected.

Bevin hasn’t run TV ads in the general election, but outside groups supporting him are trying to tie Conway to President Obama,

All three candidates have female lieutenant-governor running mates, Democrat Sannie Overly, Republican Jenean Hampton and independent Heather Curtis, the candidate’s wife. Hampton would be Kentucky’s first black statewide elected official.

The most recent Bluegrass Poll, in late July, had Conway leading with 43 percent of respondents, Bevin with 38 percent and Curtis with 8 percent.

The first debate with all three candidates will be held Tuesday at Bellarmine University in Louisville, from 7 to 8 p.m. ET. It will be televised and streamed by WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV, and is also sponsored by The Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader. The four news outlets sponsor the Bluegrass Poll.