OPINION: Kentuckians on Medicaid voted against their own interests, and the Democratic base wasn't motivated

By Cheyene Miller
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

Back in 2004, journalist and historian Thomas Frank wrote the political book “What’s the Matter with Kansas?”

Frank explores a political landscape historically dominated by left-wing [opulist movements, until conservatives started using social issues like abortion and gay marriage to appeal to the working class.

In doing so, Republicans were able to sway middle class and low-income citizens to vote against their own economic interests.

He argues the political discourse in America’s heartland has moved from discussion of economic mobility and opportunity to culture war issues, which are based in perceived anger toward “liberal elites.” Eleven years later, Kentucky has become the new face of this phenomenon.

Prior to the Nov. 3 gubernatorial election, Kentucky was known as the only Southern state where Democrats dominate most levels of government. But with Republican candidate Matt Bevin’s victory over Democrat Jack Conway, Kentucky might be the new Kansas.

During the campaign Bevin spoke against raising the minimum wage, advocated dismantling the state’s online insurance market Kynect, and posited restructuring the Medicaid expansion. And yet Bevin’s largest amount of support came from the most impoverished areas of the state which have high numbers of Medicaid recipients.

Polls consistently had Conway ahead of Bevin throughout the race, and yet Bevin defeated Conway by nearly nine percentage points. Political experts have suggested several reasons for how this happened, such as low interest among Democratic voters and conservatives being less likely to participate in polls.

Another likely reason is that religious conservatives, which make up a huge voting community in Kentucky, were motivated by the situation surrounding Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis.

The escapade involving Davis and her refusal to issue marriage licenses in wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to legalize same-sex marriage received national attention, and Bevin showed support for Davis’ cause, turning a relatively insignificant issue into a culture war issue on which many conservatives base their votes.

Bevin’s victory should serve as a wakeup call to those on the left and even the center. The Democratic base was not motivated in this election, and the party paid the ultimate political price on Election Day. Regardless of whether or not they are justified in their sentiment, much of working class America is angry, and Republicans have proven to be more capable of capitalizing on the emotions of the citizenry and turning them into victories.

Cheyene Miller is the managing editor of the Kentucky Kernel, for which he wrote this column. It also appears at http://kykernel.com/2015/11/19/kentuckians-voted-against-their-own-interests/.

Latest poll still within error margin, but weighting recent polls shows Conway has slightly better chance to win

By Matthew Young
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

The final Bluegrass Poll released Wednesday evening showed Democrat Jack Conway leading Republican Matt Bevin 45 percent to 40 percent, with an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, which applies to each number. Independent Drew Curtis was favored by 6 percent of voters polled, with 10 percent undecided.

With the election Tuesday, Nov. 3, and public polling in the race likely completed, we ran a weighted aggregation on the six public polls done for the race. A weighted aggregation is an average created by assigning varying levels of significance to each set of data. Recent polls are more significant because they reflect the most current feelings of voters, but older polls still have significance because no poll surveys every voter in Kentucky, and subsequent polls may not reflect the views of all demographics or areas. Also, many voters feelings have not changed, so it is important to keep their responses, though they are not as significant as current polls.

In our weighting, each week going back in time was considered 20 percent less significant than the week following it. So in this case, this week’s two polls (the Bluegrass and the Big Red) were weighted at 100 percent significance. Last week would have been 80%, the week before 64%, then 51.2% and so on.

In the weighted aggregation Bevin still trails by 4.44 points, taking 39.71 percent to Conway’s 44.15 percent. Because the aggregation has a larger sample size, its margin of error is only 1.43 percent. This means it can be said with 95 percent certainty -- the standard in polling -- that Conway’s lead over Bevin is between 2.5 and 6.4 points. However, with 9.66 percent undecided, it is still anyone’s race.

Just how big a factor could the undecided voters be? A randomized test for the weighted poll shows that the chance Conway will win is only 50.5 percent, meaning the race is about as certain as a coin flip. A probability test assuming that if undecideds split toward Conway as other voters do, gives him a 51.7 percent chance to win. Splitting undecideds evenly gives him a 51.6 percent chance. If they break 60-40 for Bevin, Conway still has a 50.4 percent chance to win. Undecideds typically lean against incumbents, and Conway is effectively the incumbent in this race. However, voters in the Bluegrass Poll viewed Conway more favorably than Bevin.

Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that 79 percent of the registered voters called by the Bluegrass Poll said they were likely to vote. Turnout is never that high, and election officials and political experts expect turnout to be 30 percent or less. Also, the lack of movement in the race’s polls suggest that most voters have made up their minds, and most undecided voters typically don’t go to the polls.

All this means that the campaigns are putting more effort on turning out their supporters than persuading undecideds. Both Conway and Bevin are following tradition, and kicking off tours of key areas and get-out-the vote events to try to generate interest in the closing days. Conway began a “Moving Kentucky Forward” tour Tuesday morning, with roundtable and meet and greet events in Western Kentucky. Bevin’s get-out-the-vote tour also began Wednesday with stops in Louisville, Somerset, and Columbia. For an election that is expected to have very low voter turnout, the race may depend on which candidate can organize, rally, or excite their voting base.

Bevin, Conway have first televised, one-on-one debate

By Cheyene Miller and Matt Young
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

Neither of the two major party candidates made a large impact with the first televised head-to-head debate in the governor’s race, four weeks before the Nov. 3 election.

Republican Matt Bevin and Democrat Jack Conway both threw plenty of punches, but neither landed with the force they had probably hoped. They broke little new ground on the issues during Tuesday night’s debate at Centre College in Danville.

In a race that has struggled to gain attention or interest from voters, both candidates took to the stage to press repeat on their record players of political statements.

One of the few times the debate elicited a response from the audience came when Bevin said he wants to make it easier and more attractive for businesses in Kentucky to open. “We will, indeed, un-constipate Frankfort,” Bevin said. “You can take that to the bank.”

That line won applause, but so did Conway’s reply.

“I prefer to say I’m going to streamline it, rather than un-constipate it,” said Conway, who also said Kentucky is number two in the nation in small business creation per capita.

Bevin said changes need to be made to make Kentucky more competitive and he would push “right to work” legislation, which would outlaw labor contracts that require workers to pay union dues. Both Tennessee and Indiana have these laws, and Bevin argued that they put Kentucky at a competitive disadvantage for attracting business.

“For those of you that are struggling to find gainful employment, how is that per capita ratio thing working for you?” asked Bevin, who also said Kentucky currently has 71,000 fewer jobs than at the beginning of Conway’s term as attorney general.

Bevin opened by touting his business career, saying he was the only one on stage who had “been the executive of anything.” He added that of the two candidates, he was the only one who ever ran a business, created a job or made payroll.

Conway cast himself as a fiscal conservative, saying he cut his office’s budget by 40 percent and was the only Democratic attorney general in the country who sued the Environmental Protection Agency over regulations on coal.

The candidates reiterated their positions on under-funding of state pensions, perhaps the most critical long-term issue facing Kentucky lawmakers.

“We have to make changes or nobody will get what’s been promised to them,” said Bevin, who advocated moving pension recipients to a defined contribution plan, similar to a 401(k) style savings plan. This creates a problem with the Kentucky Teachers Retirement System because teachers are not eligible to receive social security, and risk outliving their 401(k).

Conway said the state legislature has made the proper fixes in previous years and the systems can be solvent if the minimum payment, known as ARC, was made by the legislature — something that has not consistently happened for over a decade.

The soundbites got serious when the candidates were asked about the recent shooting at an Oregon community college that left nine people dead. The question introduced the topic of gun control, which often follows in the wake of mass shootings.

“We have to take a good, hard look at mental illness,” said Conway, who said that he does not favor stricter gun regulations or allowing teachers to be armed in schools.

Bevin said he is also against stricter gun regulations, and said he favored allowing armed teachers in school. He noted that he, his wife, his running mate Jenean Hampton and her husband are proud gun owners.

When Bevin and Conway were directly questioned each other, Conway continued to focus on Bevin’s refusal to release his tax returns, an unofficial tradition for Kentucky candidates for governor. Bevin said he will not release his tax returns, and noted once again that he is not legally required to do so.

Bevin took the opportunity to question Conway for taking money from political groups with anti-coal agendas, to which Conway replied he has accepted money from people he later put in jail.

In their closing statements, the candidates told voters to ask themselves who they trust to run their state.

“I don’t feel the need to lie about Jack Conway,” said Bevin, referring to the millions of dollars in attack advertising against him. He emphasized his business career as a qualification for the governor’s office.

Conway said his experience as attorney general qualified him for the job. “I understand Kentucky,” said Conway, of Louisville. “I have a plan for Kentucky, and I’ve delivered for Kentucky.”

The most recent Bluegrass Poll, released on Sept. 30, showed Conway with a small edge at 42 percent of potential votes compared to Bevin’s 37 percent. Seven percent said they would vote for independent candidate Drew Curtis and 15 percent are undecided.

Curtis did not meet the organizers' criteria for inclusion in the debate, but was in the debate hall and answered reporters' questions after the hour-long debate. Today the founder of social-networking news site fark.com published an essay questioning the need for political parties.

The debate was sponsored by Centre, AARP and WAVE-TV, Louisville, and was also broadcast on stations in Lexington and Northern Kentucky, and by out-of state stations serving northeastern Kentucky and the Paducah and Owensboro regions.

Viewers not excited by debate, but some are slightly swayed each way; some give Bevin edge over Conway

By Kevin Erpenbeck, Megan Ingros, Ben Johnson and Jerry Seale
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

The major-party candidates for Kentucky governor had a good debate Tuesday night, but didn’t prompt major changes in voters’ opinions, according to interviews of likely voters around the state. 

“The contestants are not exactly fireballs,” quipped Iva Frank, a 68-year-old AT&T retiree from Crestwood. “But I’m still not changing my vote.”

Frank, a supporter of Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, said she learned nothing new from the debate and even went so far as labeling it as “dull and boring.”

That appeared to be a common feeling among the 10 people interviewed, who were selected from the participants in the most recent Bluegrass State poll of likely voters who said they were willing to grant follow-up interviews.

“I heard the same old he-said, she-said lies,” said Carson Godbey, 56, an undecided Republican from Russell Springs, said. “They never come across with actual issues. They just blame each other.”

However, the debate between Conway and Republican Matt Bevin at Centre College in Danville did changed some opinions.

Ben Marks, 81, a south Louisville retiree, was also undecided before the debate, but said he is now going to vote for Conway.

“I think it was pretty well even tonight, both were doing the same thing, making statements,” said Marks, who worked at the old Naval Ordnance Station.

Marks, who told the poll that he leans Democratic, said in the interview that he disagreed with Bevin’s positions on several issues, including a “right to work” law, same-sex marriage and the economy.

“Bevin was talking like he could straighten out our financial problems and things in ways that I don’t think will work,” Marks said.

But Bevin, a Louisville businessman, did gain some approval from Democrat Devina Witt of Corbin during the debate sponsored by WAVE-TV, AARP and Centre College.

Witt, 57, was leaning toward Conway heading into the debate but said afterward that she is on the fence and “could easily swing to Bevin.” She said he won the debate.

In particular, Witt disliked that Conway trumpeted shutting down pain clinics that let people abuse prescription drugs without mentioning that the crackdown has led – in her opinion – to an epidemic of heroin overdoses.

Witt also disapproved of Conway’s stance on Kim Davis, the Rowan County clerk who refused to issue marriage licenses after the Supreme Court’s decision to legalize same-sex marriage. She said Davis’ religious rights were infringed.

However, Witt said she was unhappy that Bevin refuses to release his tax returns: “Why not bring them out and show them?”

The proposed right-to-work law, which would prohibit employees from being forced to pay union dues, also caught some viewers’ attention. Take Leona Starks, a 55-year-old cook from western Louisville, who is a supporter of Conway.

“Jack really impressed me stating the federal law and what it really is, and it impressed me that he stood his ground,” Starks said.

However, despite her political leanings, Starks said she thought Bevin won the debate.

“I’m still for Conway,” Starks said. “He was less on point for me, but I know the points he meant to say. But he just wasn’t there tonight.”

Thomas Hunt, 19, a church volunteer in Winchester and a firm Bevin supporter, also thought his candidate won the debate.

“Jack Conway had the guilty smile all night like he knew he was wrong,” Hunt said.

He added that Bevin separated himself in the debate because Conway’s desire to raise the minimum wage will make Kentucky’s small business problem worse. Hunt said he wasn’t worried about Bevin’s unwillingness to release his tax returns.

Strong Republican Gregg Turner, 68, of Louisville, said he thought both candidates did well. The retired property maintenance man added that he liked what Conway had to say about his plans for education and the economy, but he still strongly supports Bevin.

“He handled himself well up there today and what he had to say was interesting,” Turner said of Conway. “But Bevin is a more savvy guy with a lot more structured plans.”

Despite a contentious exchange between the candidates about arming teachers to deal with school shootings, none of the 10 people interviewed said that issue would have an impact on how they vote.

Mike Abbott, a 64-year-old retired truck driver from Annville, said he was originally for independent candidate Drew Curtis -- who was not invited to participate in the debate -- but is now leaning toward Conway

Abbott, a Teamster who said he leans Republican but thinks the party “is not what it used to be,” said he didn’t approve of Bevin’s opposition to raising the minimum wage.

“What good is a job if people starve to death?” he asked. “Anyone who works should be able to earn a real living.”

And like most of the people who were interviewed, he didn’t think any candidate won the debate.

“Both guys are probably top-of-the-line good people,” he said. “It’s just a matter of differences of opinions.”

The writers are students in an advanced journalism course at the University of Kentucky, Covering the Governor's Race, taught by John Winn Miller and Al Cross. Thanks to the sponsors of the Bluegrass Poll (The Courier-Journal, the Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV) for making the poll respondents available for interviews.

Major-party nominees leave independent Drew Curtis plenty of room to run in their first debate

By Matthew Young
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

When you are polling at only 8 percent, you can afford to take some risks. This is the position in which independent candidate Drew Curtis entered Tuesday night’s gubernatorial debate, the first among the three candidates.

Being the long-shot provided Curtis insulation from attacks by Republican Matt Bevin and Democrat Jack Conway. When candidates were given time to ask each other questions, neither of the two major party candidates directed theirs toward Curtis, leaving him free to state his case largely unchallenged. Happy to let Conway and Bevin take shots at the other, Curtis also provided comedic relief.

The political circus surrounding Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis, whose refusal to issue marriage licenses following the Supreme Court decision legalizing gay marriage landed her in jail for five days, provided Curtis with his first of many memorable lines.

Drew Curtis

“I think you’re both wrong,” Curtis told his foes to an uproar of laughter. Bevin had reiterated his view that Conway and Gov. Steve Beshear should provide some accommodation for Davis’s religious freedom – a step they say they have no power to do.

Curtis said, “As the executive you have an oath to uphold the laws of your land ... When the rule of law is not upheld society falls apart at the seams.”

When Conway asked Bevin why he had not released his tax returns, Bevin dodged the question, complaining that this was only a distraction from issues unfavorable to Conway.

Curtis again cut the tension with a joke: “So, I’ll actually answer this question.” Curtis had to wait a few seconds for the laughter in the room to subside before saying he will also release his tax returns, and offered anyone a tour of his house to prove his transparency.

When Curtis was asked about the state’s underfunded pensions, he had another line ready for Bevin: “You know you have been trying to ignore me, and I appreciate that.”

Curtis then asked for specific math on how Bevin’s proposed pension plan would work. When Bevin again sidestepped a specific answer Curtis used humor to display his displeasure. “On a math base the money is not there. [We] can’t convert everyone to a 401k plan right now and we cannot start putting new hires into it because the revenue bankrupts the system a good year earlier; and I’ll make a spreadsheet and send it to you.”

To fix the pension system, which is underfunded by over $9 billion, Curtis would create a line of credit for the state by issuing $5 billion in bonds. During years when annual return on the invested pension funds is lower the credit line could be tapped to fund the pension fund at 100 percent. During years when the return is high the accrual could be used to pay down the line of credit.

Bevin’s plan is to move all newly hired employees into a new 401(k) system of defined contributions – a type of savings where the employee and the state make contributions.

Perhaps Curtis’ most memorable line of the night came in response to a question about why he chose his wife Heather as his running mate, given the history of governors and lieutenant governors not getting along even after running together as they have since the early 1990s.

“I’ve been surprised by the number of people who think that it's a strange thing. I'm really starting to question all the rest of your marriages,” Curtis said.

He explained that while his strength is strategy, his wife’s is operations, pointing to the success of Fark.com, which she has run for years.

When he wasn’t lightening the occasion with his wit, Curtis used the stage to make voters more familiar with his positions, which include:

●            Using data analytics to make state government more efficient

●            Support for a statewide needle exchange program

●            Bringing broadband networks to all corners of Kentucky

●            Addressing mental health issues to keep guns away from mentally unstable, and

●            Restoring voting rights to 180,000 non-violent released convicts.

At the end of the night each candidate got what they wanted from the debate, said Bill Stone, former Jefferson County Republican Party chairman. Curtis benefited from his exposure to the spotlight, which has been hard for him to find as the independent.

In a quiet race, gay marriage steals the focus from other issues; first debate with all 3 candidates is Tuesday night

By Matt Young
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

In 2004 Kentucky voters passed by a 3-1 margin a state constitutional amendment defining marriage to be between one man and one woman. You’d be forgiven for assuming the initiative was on the ballot again this year.

The governor's race between Republican businessman Matt Bevin and Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway has been conspicuously quiet. “People like to know their governor, and I don't think either of these guys have done that with the people of Kentucky yet,” House Speaker Greg Stumbo told cn|2’s Pure Politics.

The lack of focus on the Nov. 3 election has left Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis to fill the attention the news media and voters.

Bevin called a federal judge’s jailing of Davis for defying his order to issue marriage licenses “utterly ridiculous,” saying that there is no need to jail someone for First Amendment beliefs, and called on Conway and Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear to take action to remove clerks’ names from marriage licenses. They said the law doesn’t allow them to do that.

Conway has exercised caution, waiting until after Davis was jailed to make his first comment. He said on Twitter, "I understand that passions are high on both sides of this issue, but we are nation of laws and no one can defy an order from a federal judge."

Asked by the county attorney to appoint a special prosecutor to look into an official-misconduct cases against Davis, Conway first did not respond. After Davis was released on condition that she not interfere with her deputy clerks’ issuance of marriage licenses, Conway said he would not name a special prosecutor because the matter was in federal court.

Conway has been largely mute lately, as he concentrates on raising money and wondering how much personal wealth Bevin will put into the race. His public appearances and media outreach have been almost non-existent since the Aug. 1 Fancy Farm Picnic.

Traditionally the governor’s race heats up after the Labor Day weekend, with a more intense schedule of debates and forums. Conway and Bevin will have their first face-off with independent candidate Drew Curtis at Bellarmine University in Louisville at 7 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 15. The debate will be televised on Louisville’s WHAS-11 and Lexington’s WKYT-27; it is sponsored by the stations and their newspaper partners in the Bluegrass Poll, The Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader.

The latest Bluegrass Poll, taken in late July, showed Conway leading Bevin 43 to 38 percent, with an error margin of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points (which applies to both numbers). Curtis had 8 percent.

Each side has turned up the rhetorical volume, with new TV ads.

Americans for Prosperity, a ”super PAC” supported by the Koch Brothers of Wichita, is attacking Conway for his support of federal health reform, or “Obamacare,” which it blamed for "a crisis in our hospitals” and “skyrocketing” insurance premiums.

The Kentucky Hospital Association says Obamacare has been a small part of its problems, but worries about future impacts. A national analysis by the National Conference of State Legislatures found that the average premium increase from 2014 to 2015 was effectively zero, while premium increases in the last decade have averaged about 10 percent. Kentucky rate increases for 2016 range from a 25 percent increase by the Kentucky Health Cooperative, which has sold most of the policies on the state’s Kynect insurance exchange, to an 11 percent decrease from WellCare. Other increases are between 5.2 and 12.2 percent.

The Republican Governors Association has been attacking Conway along the same lines, while Bevin hasn’t run ads of his own. Conway’s first attack ad builds on the “East Coast con-man” moniker that U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell applied to Bevin last year in their primary battle.

The ad shows Bevin making statements on the campaign trail, then apparently walking them back. It starts out showing Bevin saying, “I was opposed to the Farm Bill because it was an insult to farmers.” The screen then splits and shows him saying that that was “a misrepresentation of what he said.” He has a case; he objected to the bill’s spending for non-farm programs (most of its funds are for nutrition) and the money it funneled to big agribusiness.

The ad gets right that Bevin has backtracked on his opposition to the Medicaid expansion in Kentucky. He initially said that he would end it, but now says he would scale it back.

Beneath the fray is Curtis, CEO of Fark.com. Without the big money that comes with a party nomination, Curtis has been unable to air TV ads, but being an independent underdog comes with its advantages; he can ignore partisanship, and be free to talk about the issues. Curtis has released the most detailed plan to address the state’s underfunded pension system.

As the race heats up expect all three candidates to address other important issues. There will be sparring over the tax code, and how to create additional revenue the state needs; education, including the Common Core standards; and “right to work” legislation, which forbids employers from requiring union membership as a condition of employment.

However, if this summer can be used as a crystal ball for the fall, expect Bevin to continue his defense of Davis, and Conway’s refusal to appeal the gay-marriage ruling that was upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court. State law allowed Conway to do that, but Bevin accuses him of hypocrisy.

Candidates use religious values: Bevin on Rowan clerk, Conway on Bevin's attitude toward Medicaid expansion

By Cheyene Miller
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

The big job at stake this year is Kentucky governor, but the headlines and sound bites suggest that the Nov. 3 election is about religious values.

In a race that doesn’t seem to be gathering much public interest, Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway and Republican businessman Matt Bevin are using religion to appeal to Kentucky voters, who remain a highly religious voting base.

Bevin is using Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis’s jailing for refusing to issue marriage licenses to his advantage, saying Davis’s religious liberties and First Amendment rights are being violated.

Bevin criticizes Conway, who refused to appeal last year’s federal ruling that Kentucky’ same-sex marriage ban was unconstitutional, for not doing his job.

Conway said last year that he would not appeal because the lower-court judge got it right, an appeal would be on the wrong side of history, and good-paying jobs are going to states that allow marriage equality.

The independent candidate, Fark.com CEO Drew Curtis, says clerks have the right to their own personal beliefs but must follow the law as public officials.

The Davis situation did not mark the first time Bevin spoke about Christian values, as he made it one of his primary talking points during Fancy Farm Picnic weekend July 31-Aug. 1. “We need to stop apologizing for the Christian principles, the great American values that make this country great,” he said at a Republican dinner.

Conway has found his religious angle with the Medicaid expansion and Kynect, the Kentucky health insurance market, established under federal health reform. The two functions have given coverage to about 521,000 people and helped Kentucky reduce its uninsured rate more than almost any state in the nation.

In his speech at Fancy Farm, Conway criticized Bevin for not applying his Christian values to his views on health care. He said voters should elect someone who “understands that the truly Christian thing to do is to say that we are our brother’s keeper and healthcare for our people makes us a healthier and better society.”

Bevin has said that he would dismantle Kynect, but has backtracked on plans to abolish the Medicaid expansion, saying he would adopt a less expensive program, perhaps like Indiana’s, in which clients can pay premiums to get better benefits and get refunds if they don’t use the benefits.

In addition to health care, Conway and Bevin have also sparred on Kentucky’s pension system, which is considered one of the worst in the country. 

Bevin cites his experience at managing pension-fund assets, but was unfamiliar with a key facet of the state’s pension system when questioned about it this summer. He advocates moving away from Kentucky’s current pension system in favor of a 401k-style system and offering incentives to current employees who switch.

Conway says he is committed to making the pension payments required by a recent law, and wants to find a designated source of revenue for that.

Curtis proposes issuing a $5 billion bond, structured as a line of credit, that can be tapped in years when pension funds aren’t keeping up with their obligations, and pay back the debt in years when it runs ahead.

Conway is focusing his campaign strategy on education and Bevin’s statement in the Republican primary debate that early childhood education’s effects disappear after the third grade.

Conway released his education plan on Tuesday, proposing early education for 3-year-olds with parents making up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level (the same level as those who qualify for the Medicaid expansion) to during his first year in office, and all 3- and 4-year-olds whose parents make up to 200 percent of the federal poverty level by the end of his first term.

Bevin is more conservative on education and favors charter schools.

On television, the candidates and their supporters have questioned each other’s integrity.  Conway has used recycled verbal jabs from the 2014 Senate Republican primary, in which Sen. Mitch McConnell’s campaign called Bevin an “East Coast con man” and a “pathological liar.” He also criticizes Bevin for not releasing his tax returns, which Bevin says he will do if elected.

Bevin hasn’t run TV ads in the general election, but outside groups supporting him are trying to tie Conway to President Obama,

All three candidates have female lieutenant-governor running mates, Democrat Sannie Overly, Republican Jenean Hampton and independent Heather Curtis, the candidate’s wife. Hampton would be Kentucky’s first black statewide elected official.

The most recent Bluegrass Poll, in late July, had Conway leading with 43 percent of respondents, Bevin with 38 percent and Curtis with 8 percent.

The first debate with all three candidates will be held Tuesday at Bellarmine University in Louisville, from 7 to 8 p.m. ET. It will be televised and streamed by WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV, and is also sponsored by The Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader. The four news outlets sponsor the Bluegrass Poll.

Drew Curtis, independent candidate for governor, says he's a pragmatist

"Drew Curtis has been using humor to address serious issues for years, but when things started falling in place for the 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election, he decided it was time to get serious about making a change," Cheyene Miller writes for the Kentucky Kernel, the student newspaper at the University of Kentucky, in an article headlined "Drew Curtis: long shot, high hopes."

Miller continues, "Running on the Independent ticket, the owner and founder of www.fark.com, a community website where members can comment on news articles with satirical headlines, said he decided to run based on a ‘general frustration with the quality of people that are running for office.’”

"Curtis has no political background and said that gives him a unique insight," Miller reports. "He doesn’t identify as liberal or conservative, but 'pragmatic,' in that he wants to make the state government work more efficiently." Miller notes that Curtis got 8 percent in the most recent Bluegrass Poll, which showed Democrat Jack Conway at 45 percent and Republican Matt Bevin at 42 percent.